Banking sector may create run on office space

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:04:17 -0500

VietNamNet Bridge -- Demand for high-end office and retail space in Vietnam's major cities is likely to surge with international banks all set to enter the country, property analysts say.

This is similar to what happened in China's major cities following the country's entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The deregulation of the banking sector is expected to have an immediate and sustained impact on office demand, especially on Grade A and prime retail spaces in high-profile locations.

Since April 1 foreign-owned banks have theoretically been able to set up fully-owned subsidiaries in Vietnam under Vietnam's WTO commitments.

However, the central bank has yet to issue guidelines for the purpose.

Many banks are chafing at the delay and remain keen to gain a sizeable footprint in the Vietnamese market.

"The issue of the first licences for foreign banks will be akin to opening a floodgate. Banks have learnt from their experience in other emerging markets that an early lead in terms of market share is hard to beat," John Forrest, head of Corporate Solutions at US property firm Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL), says.

Changes in regulations and the opening up of the banking sector would have a significant impact on the Vietnamese property market, creating both additional demand and, ultimately, a significant increase in rents, he said.

At least eight international financial institutions have applied to the central bank to set up foreign-owned banks. Most aim to open offices in downtown areas, putting immediate pressure on high-end office space in major cities.

JLL chief Andrew Brown warns HCM City and Hanoi have relatively small amounts of Grade A office space compared with larger markets in South East Asia. HCM City, for instance, has about 10% of Bangkok's supply.

"With the recent WTO regulations, we could quite conceivably see the banking industry in HCM City and Hanoi as being one of the largest occupiers of central business district space by 2010.

"This change could instigate new prime office development projects."

Justin Kean, head of JLL's Occupier Research, says banks tend to seek high-profile locations for both their branches and ATM locations as an effective way to market their trademarks.

"This has the effect of driving up retail rents across the market, with banks able to outbid other local retailers, meaning, niche banking precincts are likely to develop within Vietnam's main cities as new entrants fight for cities," he said.

Foreigners drive up rents

Other property experts point out that the grade A office market in Vietnam already faces a shortage, especially in major cities like Hanoi and HCM City.

This dearth will be exacerbated in future when foreign banks enter the country.

Many owners of grade A office buildings have to resort to auctions.

Nguyen Thi Minh Ha, who works for a South Korean company in Hanoi, says she was assigned to find an office for the company and had to look far and wide even at rents of US$42/square meter/month.

"Almost all grade A office buildings I went to were fully occupied. Finally, I found two vacant offices in the Pacific Place Building. However, there is a long list of at least 20 tenants in the waiting list for them.

"I managed to get one of them since their rents were too high for most other companies. The owners wanted $45."

Most high-end offices in Hanoi and HCM City cost $42 to 47/sq.m.

These are about $10 higher than earlier the year, analysts say.

Property firm CB Richard Ellis Viet Nam says grade A office buildings in HCM City have been at or nearly at full occupancy since late 2005. Well- known buildings like Sunwah, Diamond Plaza, Sofitel, Metropolitan, and Sai Gon Centre are all full up.

Pushed by sustained demand from both local and foreign companies, average rents for quality space have increased steadily, speeding to a gallop this year.

HCM City ranks 14th among 50 markets surveyed globally in terms of rental hikes last year, with an increase of 33.3%.

Brett Ashton, managing director of Savills Viet Nam Ltd says high-end office rents will increase by 10% next year and 15% in the following years.

The grade A office rate in Vietnam will surpass the $50 threshold next year, he believes.

However, the shortage of prime office space will ease after 2010 when many construction projects are finished.

CBRE also forecasts that in 2009 the market will reach equilibrium, possibly putting a halt to start-ups.

From now until 2010 a total of 86 office buildings will be available with a combined space of more than 805,400 sq.m, most meeting grade A standards.

They include PetroVietnam, Sacombank, VP Bank Tower, Asiana Plaza, Financial Tower, Vietcombank, Centec, Times Square and Rosaco Tower, said Marc Townsend, CBRE general director.

(Source: Viet Nam News)

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Banking sector may create run on office space

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